Hill of Hope

Just about now everyone is confused as to which way the stock market is going to go - up or down. For the past 3 years it has been headed south, but the Wall Street experts have told us that the market never goes down 4 years in a row so this has to be an up year. But no guarantees.

The old saying is that the stock market climbs a wall of worry. We watch sharp moves up followed by days, sometimes weeks of weakness and then another shot to higher prices. From 1982 to 2000 this went on until we absolutely, positively knew it was going to continue forever. The current mindset is you can't lose if you just "hang in there". Mr. Average-stockholder has lost about 50% of his money so far and has chewed his fingernails to the nub. Now what?

I hope you don't need a house to fall on you to realize we are in a long-term bear market, one that could last for years. In a bear market the action is exactly opposite what you see in a bull market - sharp declines followed by slow agonizing rallies that don't quite make it back to the previous high prices. This is called climbing the Hill of Hope. This is a slippery hill to which you will not make it to the top. Hope is the most expensive word in an investor's lexicon.

The smartest (?) analysts (?) and talking heads on TV continue to tell us the market always comes back - if you live long enough. They fail to tell you that every bull market is followed by a bear market of about equal length. This last bull ended after 18 years and if cycles repeat we have 15 more years of the downward path to follow. I know - "this time it is different". Let's hope so, but I don't want to have my money on hope.

The DOW Industrial Index has been down 3 years in a row and only once in history has it gone down 4 times to newer lows. Did you know that the DOW Transportation Index has been down 5 years straight? Can there possibly be a sixth year? Your answer is as good as mine.

There has recently been some liquidation of mutual funds from 401Ks and IRAs, but the amount is small. It has been reported that there is about 3 trillion (with a T) in mutual funds. The talking heads speak of 10 and 20 billion leaving the so-called "safe haven". As a percentage of total assets this is a spit. One of these days not too far in the future (probably this year) investors will suddenly get the idea to head for the door. And they all seem to do it about the same time like lemmings headed over the cliff.

This will look like a major bottom in the market - and it might be if the P/E ratio can get down to around 10 or less. Until it does they will still be trying, unsuccessfully, to climb that Hill of Hope.

Al Thomas' book, "If It Doesn't Go Up, Don't Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he's the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

move in cleaning service Glencoe ..

In The News:

New TikTok malware campaign tricks users into running PowerShell commands that download Aura Stealer, which steals credentials and authentication tokens.

Gaia Family offers fixed upfront pricing for IVF cycles with unlimited embryo transfers and financial protection, partnering with over 100 U.S. fertility clinics.

The Jetsons Act aims to position Pennsylvania as a leader in advanced air mobility by establishing regulations for hybrid ground-air vehicles.

Fake Geek Squad invoice emails are targeting users with convincing charges and urgent phone numbers to steal personal information and money.

Fox News Digital's artificial intelligence newsletter digs into a robot in Russia that faceplanted, George Clooney's alarm and OpenAI's rivalry with the New York Times.

Major data breach at Conduent exposes personal information of 10+ million people. Government contractor hit by cyberattack affecting Medicaid, child support systems.

Texas startup Janta Power raises $5.5M for innovative vertical solar towers that generate 50% more energy than traditional panels while using just one-third the land.

NASA's twin ESCAPADE spacecraft launched aboard Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket Thursday afternoon from Cape Canaveral, beginning their journey to Mars with arrival expected in 2027.

Learn how to set email reminders on iPhone and Android so you never forget to reply again. Simple built-in features help you stay organized and on top of messages.

Discover how Apple's passkeys revolutionize Mac security by replacing vulnerable passwords with biometric authentication and encryption for ultimate protection.

New survey reveals 78% of parents fear AI scams targeting their kids, yet nearly half haven't discussed these threats. Learn why this dangerous gap exists.

Chrome now autofills passport and driver's license info automatically. Google's latest browser update adds official document support with encryption and user control.

Scammers impersonate Department of Veterans Affairs employees claiming veterans owe money, but real VA communications only direct to VA.gov or official channels.

The AltoVolo Sigma hybrid-electric aircraft flies 500 miles at 220 mph while operating 80% quieter than helicopters, featuring safety systems and compact design.

Google search scam alert: fake customer service numbers can give scammers remote control of your phone. Learn how to spot these traps and protect yourself.

Electric vehicles overtake gas cars in total CO2 savings after just two years of driving, with emissions benefits growing over time as power grids get cleaner.

Louvre Museum reportedly used "Louvre" as password for surveillance system during $100M jewel heist. Learn how weak passwords put even famous institutions at risk.

Bipartisan AI jobs bill from Sens. Hawley and Warner would require companies to report AI-related layoffs and hiring to Department of Labor quarterly.

Joe A. from Shelton, Connecticut, lost $228,000 to a ZAP Solutions cryptocurrency investment scam after his divorce, highlighting rising online fraud.

AI-powered autonomous trucks from Waabi and Volvo target U.S. freight driver shortage with Level 4 self-driving technology and NVIDIA computing platform integration.

Survive flight disruptions with expert travel tips: Book early morning flights, download airline apps and know your refund rights during service cuts.

Apple's iOS 26.1 update delivers major security fixes, performance boosts and enhanced privacy controls for your iPhone. Discover why updating now protects your data.

Russian hackers use fake CAPTCHA tests to spread dangerous malware targeting governments and journalists. Learn how to protect yourself from these deceptive attacks.

Stay up to date on the latest AI technology advancements and learn about the challenges and opportunities AI presents now and for the future.

Miami-Dade debuts America's first autonomous police SUV with AI cameras, drone deployment and real-time crime detection in groundbreaking law enforcement pilot.

Hill of Hope

Stocks & Mutual Fund