How We Eluded The Bear Of 2000

The date October 13, 2000 will forever be embedded in my mind. It was the day after our mutual fund trend tracking indicator had broken its long-term trend line and I sold 100% of my clients' invested positions (and my own) and moved the proceeds to the safety of money market accounts. Some people thought we were nuts, but I had come to trust the numbers.

The shake out in the stock market, which started in April 2000, had all major indexes coming off their highs, violently followed by just as strong rally attempts. The roller coaster ride was so extreme that even usually slow moving mutual funds behaved as erratically as tech stocks.

By October, the markets had settled into a definable downtrend, at least according to my indicators. We sat safely on the sidelines and watched the unfolding of what is now considered to be one of the worst bear markets in history.

By April 2001 the markets really had taken a dive, but Wall Street analysts, brokers and the financial press continued to harp on the great buying opportunity this presented. Buying on dips, dollar cost averaging and "V" type recovery were continuously hyped to the unsuspecting public.

By the end of the year, and after the tragic events of 911, the markets were even lower and people began to wake up to the fact that the investing rules of the '90s were no longer applicable. Stories of investors having lost in excess of 50% of their portfolio value were the norm.

Why bring this up now? To illustrate the point that I have continuously propounded throughout the 90s; that a methodical, objective approach with clearly defined Buy and Sell signals is a "must" for any investor.

To say it more bluntly: If you buy an investment and you don't have a clear strategy for taking profits if it goes your way, or taking a small loss if it goes against you, you are not investing; you are merely gambling.

The last 2-1/2 years clearly illustrate that it is as important to be out of the market during bad times, as it is to be in the market during good times. Want proof?

According to InvesTech's monthly newsletter it turns out that, measuring from 1928 to 2002, if you started with $10 and you followed the famous buy-and-hold strategy, that $10 would become $10,957.

If you somehow missed the best 30 months, your $10 would only be $154. However, if you managed to miss the 30 worst months, your $10 would be $1,317,803! Thus, my point: Missing the worst periods has profound impact on long-run compounding. There are times when you end up better off by being out of the market.

Interestingly enough, if you missed the 30 best months and the 30 worst months, your $10 would still be worth $18,558, which is 80% higher than the buy-and-hold strategy. This all comes about because stock prices generally go down faster than they go up.

Wall Street and most people tend to overlook the value of minimizing loss, and that is exactly why the bear demolished more than 50% of many peoples' portfolios while I and those who trusted my advice escaped the worst of the beast's rampage.

About The Author

Ulli Niemann is an investment advisor and has been writing about objective, methodical approaches to investing for over 10 years. He eluded the bear market of 2000 and has helped hundreds of people make better investment decisions. To find out more about his approach and his FREE Newsletter, please visit: www.successful-investment.com; www.successful-investment.com

green cleaning service Park Ridge ..

In The News:

Reclaim your time from big tech with effective screen time reduction strategies for iPhone and Android, featuring steps to limit app usage and create phone-free zones.

Amazon Prime Day shoppers face threats from 120,000-plus scam websites as cybercriminals prepare phishing traps and malware ahead of the July sales event.

Fox News' AI Newsletter brings you the latest on this rapidly evolving technology.

The AEON humanoid robot tackles labor challenges with Nvidia AI, Microsoft Azure cloud and advanced spatial awareness, working alongside industry leaders Schaeffler and Pilatus.

Google's Ask Photos feature brings AI-powered searches to your photo library, letting you find memories with natural language queries while maintaining privacy controls.

The return of blue book exams emerges as universities fight widespread AI academic dishonesty and educators debate whether to ban AI tools or teach responsible usage.

Signs your phone might be hacked include strange behavior, unauthorized texts, battery drain and pop-ups, while protection involves updating software and avoiding public Wi-Fi.

Tokyo startup H2L has launched Capsule Interface technology enabling full-body robot control with muscle sensors, offering immersive remote operation.

The A.I. industry seems set for growing pains as Big Tech companies scramble for solutions to the medium's unprecedented strain on the power grid.

Fourth of July fireworks cause a 60% spike in lost pets, but GPS trackers and AI photo-matching services like Love Lost can help reunite missing dogs with their families.

Protect yourself from jugging, the rising crime by which thieves monitor ATM users and follow them to steal cash, with six practical safety tips to stay alert and secure.

U.S. airlines like Delta, American and United are selling your domestic flight records to government agencies through the little-known Travel Intelligence Program.

Autonomous robots from Uber Eats are rolling out across U.S. cities, featuring LIDAR sensors, secure compartments and all-weather operation for food and grocery delivery.

Costco has expanded into EV infrastructure with new ultra-fast charging stations that can charge most electric vehicles to 80% in 20-60 minutes while shoppers browse the warehouse.

The new Gemini Robotics On-Device AI allows robots to perform complex tasks without internet, offering enhanced privacy, reliability and adaptability for real-world use.

Protect yourself from Amazon phishing scams by spotting red flags like suspicious sender addresses and spelling errors while using Amazon's Message Center to verify communications.

GAC Group's new Govy AirCab flying car combines lightweight design with advanced safety systems and smart cabin technology to revolutionize city travel with an 18.6-mile range.

The Berkeley Humanoid Light (BHL) is a lightweight, open source humanoid robot that anyone can build using 3D-printed parts and off-the-shelf components.

Meta’s new AI chatbot is getting personal, and it might be sharing more than you realize.

A new threat targets both Android and iPhone users: SparkKitty, a powerful mobile malware strain that scans private photos to steal cryptocurrency recovery phrases and other sensitive data.

Thanks to a team at the University of California, Davis, there's a new brain-computer interface (BCI) system that's opening up real-time, natural conversation for people who can't speak.

Privacy risks are hiding in plain sight, as your personal data is likely being collected, tracked, and sold without your knowledge.

VenHub, a fully autonomous, AI-powered smart store just opened at the LAX/Metro Transit Center in Los Angeles.

A woman's Facebook account takeover reveals dangerous social engineering tactics and provides lessons on recovery, avoiding scams and enacting stronger security measures.

Shanghai engineers are using 432 walking robots to relocate a complex, preserving Shikumen architecture while creating space for a modern underground hub and cultural center.

How We Eluded The Bear Of 2000

Stocks & Mutual Fund