Mutual Fund Honor Roll ? Buy High, Sell Low by Chasing Performance

Buy high and sell low -- It's not a typo.

Millions of investors guarantee their failure by selecting mutual funds and stocks based on quarterly or annual performance records. Do you chase performance? You might be buying high and selling low!

As the year draws to a close, millions of mutual fund investors begin an annual event to divine next year's winners. Yet most of these individuals rely heavily on a time-honored ? but terribly wrong ? method of evaluating strength. Whether analyzing screening tools from websites, reviewing fund honor rolls in magazines, or using star ratings from fund analysts, normally savvy business people foolishly chase the returns of last year's hottest investments.

This begs the question: Can top performing mutual funds lead two years in a row? Consider a study commissioned by Vanguard Investments Australia and released by Morningstar. The five best performing funds were analyzed from 1994 to 2003. Here are the results:

-- Only 16% of top five funds make it to the following year's list.

-- Top five funds average 15% lower returns the following year.

-- Top five funds barely beat (by 0.3%) the market the following year.

-- 21% of all top five funds ceased to exist within the following 10 years.

Academic studies and market statistics confirm the typical investor acts in direct opposition to the sage advice ? buy low, sell high. It's only after high returns are realized and reported that investors pour money into both stock and bond mutual funds. In fact, Financial Research Corporation compared investor cash flows into mutual funds. Purchases immediately following best-performing quarters exceed 14 times those immediately following their worst-performing quarters. In other words, you are 14 times more likely to buy funds at their highest price than at it's lowest. Buy high and sell low.

Just what kind of damage are they inflicting to their investment returns? DALBAR, Inc., conducted a well-known study called Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior. The study confirms investors' poor timing and the resulting financial carnage. Investors buy funds immediately after a rapid price appreciation. This just happens to be right before investment performance wanes. Prices fall soon after and the investors quickly dump their holdings to search for the next hot fund. The resulting returns fail to even beat inflation! When measured over the last nineteen years, the average equity investor earned a meager 2.6% annual return. Compare that to a 3.1% inflation rate and a 12.2% return from the S&P 500 over the exact same time period. Not only did investors fail to keep up with the market, they also lost money to inflation.

We've all seen the warnings on packages of cigarettes. Even smokers understand their relevance; smoking is not a healthy activity. So why do investors not heed warnings about mutual fund returns? You've all seen those statements too. But can you remember what is said? Past performance is not a guarantee or indicator of future results. Research and studies have proven this fact, yet the majority of investors choose to ignore this warning. Yes, it's an easy means of comparing funds. It also happens to be completely irrelevant. Let me evangelize these words for you. Past performance does not predict future results!

Here's how you can stop chasing short term performance and stay focused on your financial goals. Identify appropriate long-term investments by evaluating the following:
(1) Leadership: How does the fund perform relative to similar size and similar style funds?
(2) Tenure: How long have the managers and advisors been at the fund?
(3) Management: Managers well-known, highly-regarded (e.g. remember Peter Lynch)?
(4) Consistency: Are the 3, 5, and 10 year returns all above average?

Finally, measure returns based on your entire portfolio. History shows that no single investment success repeats. Accept the fact every year is different and brings new leaders and laggards. Use an asset allocation strategy to guarantee balance and increase long term returns among all your investments. Invest in a diversified portfolio to meet your financial goals - and stick with it.

Not yet learned your lesson? Consider this: Fourteen mutual funds topped the 2003 charts with returns over 100%. In 2004, these fourteen funds lost over 4% while the S&P 500 gained 3%. Congratulations, chasing performance lost 7% of your money this year.

Tim Olson

theassetadvisor.com
Subscribe to our free newsletter

Mr. Olson is the editor of The Asset Advisor, a financial investment service providing proven strategies for no-load mutual fund investors. He brings 26 years of education and experience from Stanford University, Ernst & Young financial consulting, personal wealth management, and venture capital investing.

Wood Dale Chicago prom limo .. Lockport Chicago limo O’Hare
In The News:

Fueled by artificial intelligence, CyberDog the robotic dog is designed specifically locate fire ant nests, which are endangering ecosystems.
Stay up to date on the latest AI technology advancements and learn about the challenges and opportunities AI presents
Internet browsers are useful, but they can be dangerous. Clicking on malicious links can direct you to dangerous websites that steal information or infect your device.
Apple's latest iOS update introduces advanced artificial intelligence capabilities, which may be capturing and analyzing sensitive information.
Breach site confirmed 56,904,909 Hot Topic users' data leaked online. Tech expert Kurt “CyberGuy" Knutsson says the company's silence makes matters even worse.
Tech expert Kurt “CyberGuy" Knutsson discusses how an innovative Easy-Way kit turns standard strollers electric, simplifying navigation for parents.
Tech expert Kurt “CyberGuy" Knutsson talks about T-Mobile being hacked in broad cyberattack on global phone and internet companies.
Tech expert Kurt “CyberGuy" Knutsson shows you how to add, customize and manage widgets for quick access to apps and info from your iPhone home screen.
Wrong Google searches can not only compromise your device and personal data. They can also bring law enforcement to your doorstep. Hackers are targeting Google searches.
China's Shanghai Kepler Robotics has developed a new humanoid robot that can carry up to 35 pounds per hand for commercial applications across various industries
Checking your hearing has gotten easier with the new hearing test feature in AirPods Pro 2. You can take reliable hearing tests using your iPhone or iPad.
Stay up to date on the latest AI technology advancements and learn about the challenges and opportunities AI presents now and for the future.
Kurt "CyberGuy" Knutsson explains how a VPN — virtual private network — works and how running it can slow down the operation of your device.
The WalkON Suit F1, an exoskeleton developed to help people with disabilities, can actually walk over to a person in a wheelchair, solving a major problem.
ClickFix, a new scam targeting computer users, is on the rise in the U.S. The scam prompts its targets to click on a link to fix a problem.
Skydweller is the world's largest unmanned solar-powered aircraft that can stay airborne for weeks, and even months, without refueling.
The U.S. government said it is investigating after People's Republic of China hackers targeted commercial telecommunications service providers in the U.S.
Stay up to date on the latest AI technology advancements and learn about the challenges and opportunities AI presents now and for the future.
Scammers are using increasingly sophisticated ways to lure unsuspecting victims, and some are impersonating an email help desk or support team.
You can unsend or edit your iMessages with the latest iOS updates. Kurt the CyberGuy explains how you can save yourself some potential embarrassment.
Kurt “CyberGuy" Knutsson says there’s been a rise in cybercriminal services using hacked police and government emails to send subpoenas and data requests to U.S. companies.
Kurt “CyberGuy" Knutsson discusses how Axiom Space and luxury designer Prada are collaborating on NASA's Artemis III spacesuit design.
Voice assistants may cause confusion across devices. Tech expert Kurt “CyberGuy" Knutsson offers some solutions to fix it.
Shameless scammers trick veterans into giving personal info or cash. Tech expert Kurt “CyberGuy" Knutsson explores five common scams.

Understanding Stock Market Indexes

A stock market index is a statistical measure of changes... Read More

Choosing An Investment Stock Broker

If you want one.And I don't recommend any broker with... Read More

Where Is The Rabbit?

We need a rabbit!This was a pretty horrible week for... Read More

Catnip of the Stock Market

I have watched my cat play with a bag of... Read More

Does Japan Matter?

For the last 12 years we have seen the Japanese... Read More

Investment Capital Gains

Have you bought any mutual funds this year or late... Read More

?Fears Only Enemy Is Action?

What a great statement!I just heard someone use it in... Read More

Stock Market Insanity

Let's first define insanity. It is doing the same thing... Read More

9 Deadly Trading Mistakes!

The following are a list of nine things you want... Read More

Living Trust Investing: Income Considerations when the Grantor Dies

A common problem I often see when working with living... Read More

Why the Majority Fail at Stock Investing

The gleam and bright lights of Wall Street lure in... Read More

Bottoms Ups

If you have talked to a stock broker or financial... Read More

Attitude Is [Almost] Everything

I often play a little game with myself when I... Read More

Size Counts!

What the heck am I talking about?It is often said... Read More

Complacency Indicator

If you haven't heard of the technical indicator with the... Read More

What Can Model Airplanes Teach You About Trading?

I was devastated!I just couldn't believe it. I was 10... Read More

My Neighbor Got A New Car

I don't know what kind it is, but I saw... Read More

Dividend Paying Stocks

I would like to share with the reader an article... Read More

The Inside Scoop on Mutual Fund Rip Offs

The bear market that showed up at the end of... Read More

E-mini Day Trading - Day Trading for Beginners - Stock Market Timing Software

I mean it when I say that. While plastic silverware... Read More

The Stock Market Investor?s Worst Enemy

Every stock market investor faces one primal enemy. An enemy... Read More

Trading For A Living - Part 1

There can't be many traders who haven't at least considered... Read More

Stealth Bull

If you have been watching the stock market at all... Read More

Price to Earnings Ratio - P/E

After finding the price of a particular stock, usually the... Read More

Mutual Fund Ball and Chain

The broker told me not to sell because the mutual... Read More

Antigo wedding limo ..