One of the greatest challenges of investing in stocks is developing a "sell discipline". Some of the most adept investors struggle with the decision of when to sell.
First, recognize that there are no absolute formulas to tell us to sell at precisely the right time. Instead, we'll need to consider a bundle of factors such as the investment's characteristics, the broad economy, and your own needs, with an eye to market trends. The answer will come from some combination of these hard-to-quantify characteristics.
If you'll need cash soon, for whatever reason, you should be more ready to sell, especially if a stock becomes less of a sure thing. Similarly, if the economy is weak, we might be more motivated to take profits (or even losses) in stocks which are sensitive to economic swings, while a strong economy might allow us to hold tight.
Most important, however, is the intrinsic value of the stock itself. A simple rule plays out here: buy when a stock is under-valued (when the stock sells for less than its intrinsic value), and sell when it is over-valued (priced above intrinsic value). The trick is measuring intrinsic value, which can be done many different ways. We'll talk about measuring intrinsic value more at another time, but regardless of how we measure it, we had to have an idea of what the company was actually worth when we bought it. So, if we reach that target, we can start thinking about taking profits. It isn't always necessary to sell out immediately, though. For a pure value stock, we should sell somewhere in that range, but if the company is expected to grow, we can wait longer and take advantage of that growth. Perhaps, as a rule of thumb, wait until the stock reaches a price double what we think it's worth. Of course, this is a personal decision, too, and depends on how patient you are, and how much you have invested. At this point, the "easy money" has already been made.
Market Trends. It is our firm position that market trends alone should never lead to buying or selling a stock. However, if we've already decided to sell, trend indicators, used carefully, can enhance profits. For example, if a stock is in a solid uptrend that shows no signs of slowing, it may be profitable to wait for the stock to approach a short-term top before selling. Beware that you don't hold too long. Better to sell early than late. Eventually the market will catch on to reality, so if your evaluation of the stock is right, the risk of holding on too long can be far greater than the small benefit from holding out for that extra dollar.
A few other errors to avoid:
Don't avoid selling because you're emotionally attached to a stock. Circumstances change over time. There's no reason to beat yourself up over it. Just dump the loser and move on.
Don't sell when panicked. Panic is an emotional response, and usually wells up when things aren't going your way but you can't tell why. Know why you want to act. Until you can make a judgment about why to sell, it's probably best to hold on and wait out the fear.
Don't sell when worried. In many ways, worry is similar to panic, if a bit milder. It is still an emotion, and one that should be controlled. Stocks are often said to "climb a wall of worry", which means that they will ease upward through difficult times. When news is worrisome, but not devastating, the only remaining catalysts are good things, as all the bad news has probably already been factored in by selling among the worrywarts.
Don't sell when bored. Just because a stock isn't moving doesn't mean it was a bad selection. It may just indicate that you're smarter (and therefore earlier) than the market hordes. If you're still convinced it was a good choice, hold firm and wait for everyone to catch on to your wisdom. Especially with value stocks, it can often take a year or longer before the mainstream recognizes a good stock, and that's when the price will start moving. Patience is a virtue.
In the end, every selling decision is a personal one, and must balance out all the factors we've mentioned. The most important rule, of course, is to sell when it benefits YOU.
To send comments or to learn more about Scott Pearson's Investment Management Services, visit http://www.valueview.net
Scott Pearson is an investment advisor, writer, editor, instructor, and business leader. As editor and publisher of Investor's Value View, a national investment newsletter, he provides general money tips and investment advice to readers, and demonstrates a special knack for locating the up-and-coming stocks in the burgeoning high-tech industries. As President and Chief Investment Officer of Value View Financial Corp., he offers investment management services to a wide variety of clients.
tidy up service Glenview ..The date October 13, 2000 will forever be embedded in... Read More
For the year 2000 we have seen hundreds of mutual... Read More
There is a current movie entitled "Eternal Sunshine of the... Read More
I have been trading for several decades and was an... Read More
Having lived aboard a sailboat for 2 years I was... Read More
Disclaimer: Please note that I do not necessarily purchase, own,... Read More
1. Do not spread your money too thin.My friend has... Read More
I have watched my cat play with a bag of... Read More
Let's assume that you want to make some serious money... Read More
With the stock market stubbornly refusing to settle down and... Read More
Fundamental analysis.Fundamentals analysis says the best way to predict the... Read More
'Sector funds are too risky.' 'I doubled my money with... Read More
How often have you come across an advertisement or e-mail... Read More
As I said in Part I everyone in the insane... Read More
The stock market can present you with a lot of... Read More
Suppose your position has made a big move and you... Read More
Are you attracted to the idea of being in control... Read More
Every stock market investor faces one primal enemy. An enemy... Read More
I am hearing predictions by brokers, financial planners, talk show... Read More
Ever jumped out of an airplane? It's OK if you... Read More
No, this is not a symbol for some Latin number.... Read More
When you become interested in a stock or mutual fund... Read More
Let's discuss commodities; with the latest Enron situation, it is... Read More
After finding the price of a particular stock, usually the... Read More
One of the great "secrets" of successful people is discipline... Read More
full-service cleaning Mundelein ..You probably know the story of Sherlock Holmes and the... Read More
Profitable day traders recognize that momentum trading is among the... Read More
If you haven't heard of the technical indicator with the... Read More
Having lived aboard a sailboat for 2 years I was... Read More
Hedge current portfolio positions and gain access to capital resources... Read More
It is commonly reported that the stock market averages about... Read More
Wall Street's watchword has always been diversification, but what does... Read More
When it comes to buying a stock or mutual fund... Read More
If you were to find that you had some severe... Read More
I often hear from people, "I don't trade. I invest.... Read More
Just about now everyone is confused as to which way... Read More
Stock trading can be a very profitable activity. You can... Read More
Buy high and sell low -- It's not a typo.Millions... Read More
You'd have had to be living on a desert island... Read More
I constantly hear the talking heads on CNBC-TV, the radio... Read More
It has fallen upon the consumer to make our economy... Read More
Much like the middle child, mid-cap stocks have long struggled... Read More
Index Fund Trading can be one of the most profitable...or... Read More
Many people would like to diversify their portfolios to expand... Read More
In a previously written article, we expanded the use of... Read More
Today's society gives special recognition to alcoholics, sexaholics, binge-aholics, shopaholics,... Read More
I'll bet with almost anyone that has stocks or mutual... Read More
A Guide to Using Stop Loss Orders Stop losses are... Read More
How many people went to a cash position this week?... Read More
People are always asking me when should I sell my... Read More
Stocks & Mutual Fund |