The Cub; II

We keep hearing about this bear market and that the bottom is "in" or "very close" so we should be invested in these bargain basement prices to take advantage of the next bull so we won't lose out on the expected huge profits.

This is not a big bear market - yet. What you are experiencing is the cub phase. The full size bear has not appeared. It is going to be one of the biggest, meanest, ugliest Kodiaks the stock market has ever experienced. If you think you have lost money in the last 2 ? years wait a while as this cub is eating everything in sight as he grows larger each day.

If you haven't thrown your paper down because you think I'm nuts let's try on these facts that the talking heads don't want to discuss.

So far the U.S. is better off than many countries, but the economy is slowing down every day and more and more folks are being laid off. As the American consumer slows his buying that cuts into retail sales which cuts into wholesale sales and then the manufacturer must slow his production so he must lay off workers. The slow down and layoffs at the factory affect at least 6 local businesses who either lay off some of their people or are forced out of business.

As businesses slow and their sales and profits diminish it becomes apparent in their stock price so it goes down. Most stocks are priced to valuations based on company earnings called the P/E ratio, price divided by earnings per share. When you look back upon the P/E ratios for the past 100 years there has a mean (similar to an average) of about 14. Currently the P/E ratio for the stock market is about 31. In order for the mean to be realized you have two ways to achieve it. Either the earnings of companies must double or the price must decline by 50% - from here.

When you have a worldwide slowdown the chance of doubling profits is pretty slim so the market does its thing by decreasing price per share. That is called a bear market. When you think about business slowing more from here you also come to understand that it will take some kind of miracle to get profits up. In fact earnings will continue to decline so the reduction in the P/E ratio is a long way off. The more the stock market goes down the longer it will take to get to a "normal" P/E. It kind of feeds on itself.

If you own any stocks or mutual funds you can realize it is time to sell even at these low prices because the market is going to go lower. One of the keys to being successful in the stock market is to sell with a small loss and not wait for it to get bigger. Unfortunately, the small investor always wants to wait for a rally to get out "even". There is no "even" in this market. The smartest action is to sell before your account approaches zero.

The cub is hungry. Don't wait for him to become a full-fledged bear.

Al Thomas' best selling book, "If It Doesn't Go Up, Don't Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter to receive his market letter for 3 months at www.mutualfundmagic.com to discover why he's the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

disinfecting cleaning services Winnetka ..

In The News:

Data brokers aggressively collect your holiday shopping data to fuel scams and targeted ads. Learn how to delete your digital profile before 2025 starts.

Scammers are sending fake MetaMask wallet verification emails using official branding to steal crypto information through phishing links and fraudulent domains.

Learn what background permissions, push notifications, security updates, auto-join networks and app refresh mean to better manage your phone's privacy settings.

Criminals test stolen data by applying for deposit accounts in victims' names to prepare bigger attacks. Learn why banks won't share fraud details.

New study of 10,500+ kids reveals early smartphone ownership linked to depression, obesity, and poor sleep by age 12. Earlier phones mean higher risks.

A phone phishing attack compromised Harvard's alumni and donor database, marking the second security incident at the university in recent months.

AutoFlight's zero-carbon floating vertiport uses solar power to charge eVTOL aircraft while supporting emergency response, tourism, and marine energy maintenance.

A new phone return scam targets recent buyers with fake carrier calls. Learn how criminals steal devices and steps to protect yourself from this fraud.

New Anthropic research reveals how AI reward hacking leads to dangerous behaviors, including models giving harmful advice like drinking bleach to users seeking help.

The Fox News AI Newsletter gives readers the latest AI technology advancements, covering the challenges and opportunities AI presents.

Holiday email scams, including non-delivery fraud and gift card schemes, spike in November and December, costing victims hundreds of millions, the FBI says.

Holiday visits offer the perfect opportunity to help older parents with technology updates, scam protection and basic troubleshooting skills for safer digital experiences.

Swiss scientists create grain-sized robot that surgeons control with magnets to deliver medicine precisely through blood vessels in medical breakthrough.

Researchers exploited WhatsApp's API vulnerability to scrape 3.5 billion phone numbers. Learn how this massive data breach happened and protect yourself.

Travel companies share passenger data with third parties during holidays, but travelers can protect themselves by removing data from broker sites and using aliases.

Xpeng's humanoid robot moves so realistically that crowds believed it was fake, marking a major advancement in robotics technology ahead of 2026 commercial launch.

Researchers discover phishing scam using invisible characters to evade email security, with protection tips including password managers and two-factor authentication.

iPhone and Android users can reduce battery drain and data usage by restricting Background App Refresh to Wi-Fi connections instead of mobile networks.

Scammers nearly stole an Apple account by exploiting the support system with authentic-looking tickets and phone calls, users can protect themselves with safety steps.

FoloToy restored sales of its AI teddy bear Kumma after a weeklong suspension following safety group findings of risky and inappropriate responses to children.

Threat intelligence firm Synthient uncovers one of the largest password exposures ever, prompting immediate security recommendations.

Viral video shared by Elon Musk shows Tesla's Optimus humanoid robots performing tasks from cooking to construction, garnering over 58.5 million views on social media.

Chinese hackers used Anthropic's Claude AI to launch autonomous cyberattacks on 30 organizations worldwide, marking a major shift in cybersecurity threats.

Apple's new Sleep Score feature gives you a rating for your nightly rest quality. Learn how to set it up on your Apple Watch and iPhone today.

Essential phone settings to enable before losing your device, including Find My network, location services and security features for iPhone and Android.

The Cub; II

Stocks & Mutual Fund