This Market Is Different

All of the talking heads have been telling us that this market is different. You are going to have to be patient and soon (hopefully in your lifetime) the DOW and the Nasdaq will be back at their old highs. They cite all the statistics about how the economy is improving - consumers are spending, the consumer confidence index looks OK, unemployment is getting better, blah, blah, blah.

Those trees are all nice, but they better step back and look at the forest. It's on fire and going up in smoke. The major trend has been down since the beginning of 2000 and is continuing with only occasional brief upward movements. The Dow lost 6% in 2000 and another 7% in 2001 and so far this year is off almost 8%. I won't mention the Nasdaq. That is ugly.

From 1931 to 1951 the economy doubled. The Gross Domestic Product was up 100% yet the stock market did nothing for 20 years. What few investors that were left after the '29 Crash made their money from dividends not stock price appreciation. It took 25 years for the stock market to go back up to the 1929 high.

Why are we in a bear market that can last for many years when things look so good? There does not seem to be a correlation between a good economy and stock prices. For more than 100 years the P/E ratio for the S&P500 index has been about 15. Today it is 41. That is figured on the earnings of a company paying you back your money in 41 years. YEARS! Are you kidding? I'll need my money before that. Very simply this is telling you that the stock market is very over-valued. Either corporate productivity must increase dramatically or stock prices must come down. Right now it looks like the latter is happening. So far about $6 trillion (that's with a 'T') has vanished from stockholders portfolios these last 2 years. Nobody else got it. It's just gone. It was all paper profit anyway.

Your broker tells you you don't have a loss until you sell and not to worry as the market always comes back - except when it doesn't. Since 1920 there have 3 major bull markets that have lasted about 16 years. The last one started about 1982 and ended at 2000. Each one of the bulls has been followed by a sideways to down market for the next 16 years. I am no soothsayer, but this has all the makings of one of those 16-year periods. What to do?

There is only one thing that is prudent until the carnage stops. Sell out of all stocks and stock mutual funds except no-load bond funds. (It is not too late to sell.) There are many good ones such as Government, International and Mortgage Backed no-load bond funds with varying lengths of maturity. It may not be exciting like the 1998-99 run up, but you will have your money when the dust settles.

This market is different. It's a bear.

Al Thomas' best selling book, "If It Doesn't Go Up, Don't Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter to receive his market letter for 3 months at www.mutualfundmagic.com to discover why he's the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Comments to al@mutualfundmagic.com

Airbnb cleaning service Glenview ..

In The News:

Apple releases emergency patches for two zero-day vulnerabilities actively exploited in attacks. iPhone and iPad users urged to update immediately.

DoorDash launches Zesty, an AI-powered social app that recommends restaurants through conversational search, now testing in San Francisco and New York.

Cybersecurity firm Infoblox reveals that over 90 percent of parked domains now redirect visitors to scams and malware, making simple typos extremely dangerous.

The Fox News AI Newsletter covers the latest artificial intelligence technology advancements, including the challenges and opportunities AI presents now and for the future.

GPT-5.2 is now live for all ChatGPT users with improved coding, writing and image interpretation, with Kurt Knutsson offering his review.

New iPhone replacement scam uses pressure tactics and fake carrier calls to steal devices from buyers. Criminals claim shipping errors and demand urgent returns.

Amazon Ring's new facial recognition feature sparks privacy controversy as Electronic Frontier Foundation critics argue the AI upgrade expands surveillance risks.

New Android banking trojan Sturnus steals credentials, reads encrypted messages and controls devices.

Denmark's 3D-printed student village proves automation builds 36 apartments faster than traditional methods. Skovsporet project shows housing future.

Discover Android's new Sound Notifications feature that alerts you to smoke alarms, doorbells, and baby cries even when wearing headphones.

New SantaStealer malware reportedly threatens holiday shoppers with password theft. This Christmas-themed info-stealer targets browsers and crypto wallets.

The Christmas season brings a surge in Netflix phishing scams targeting shoppers with fake emails. Stacey P received convincing scam but verified account first.

San Francisco Giants invite Jamie Grohsong to throw ceremonial first pitch at Oracle Park after he learned to play baseball with a bionic hand following an injury.

FBI warns cybercriminals are stealing family photos from social media to create fake proof of life images in virtual kidnapping scams targeting victims.

Instagram's new 'Your Algorithm' tool lets you control your Reels feed in real time. The app now gives you power to customize what videos you see.

Major Marquis fintech breach exposes 400,000-plus Americans' data through unpatched SonicWall vulnerability, with Texas hardest hit at 354,000 affected.

Free up iPhone storage fast by clearing large photos and videos from Messages app. Simple steps for iOS users to delete attachments without losing chats.

Scammers are flooding inboxes with fake tracking alerts that mimic real carriers, exploiting the holiday rush to steal logins and personal data.

The Fox News AI Newsletter brings you the latest news on AI technology advancements and the challenges and opportunities AI presents now and for the future.

Texas family reunites with missing 11-year-old cat Grayson after 103 days using Petco Love Lost's AI photo matching technology and community help.

Tired of AI customer service loops? These insider tricks help you escape "frustration AI" and get real human help when you need it most for urgent issues.

Unlock richer audio from your streaming apps with simple tweaks to volume normalization, equalizer settings, and quality preferences for cleaner sound.

Scammers are sending fake Facebook settlement payout emails that mimic legitimate notices from the privacy settlement administrator to deceive users.

Holiday shopping scams surge as fake refund emails target distracted consumers during Black Friday and holiday seasons, costing Americans billions annually.

The AI-powered IRMO M1 exoskeleton features four modes, including turbo, eco, training and rest for hiking, running, cycling and sports with eight-hour battery life.

This Market Is Different

Stocks & Mutual Fund