This Market Is Different

All of the talking heads have been telling us that this market is different. You are going to have to be patient and soon (hopefully in your lifetime) the DOW and the Nasdaq will be back at their old highs. They cite all the statistics about how the economy is improving - consumers are spending, the consumer confidence index looks OK, unemployment is getting better, blah, blah, blah.

Those trees are all nice, but they better step back and look at the forest. It's on fire and going up in smoke. The major trend has been down since the beginning of 2000 and is continuing with only occasional brief upward movements. The Dow lost 6% in 2000 and another 7% in 2001 and so far this year is off almost 8%. I won't mention the Nasdaq. That is ugly.

From 1931 to 1951 the economy doubled. The Gross Domestic Product was up 100% yet the stock market did nothing for 20 years. What few investors that were left after the '29 Crash made their money from dividends not stock price appreciation. It took 25 years for the stock market to go back up to the 1929 high.

Why are we in a bear market that can last for many years when things look so good? There does not seem to be a correlation between a good economy and stock prices. For more than 100 years the P/E ratio for the S&P500 index has been about 15. Today it is 41. That is figured on the earnings of a company paying you back your money in 41 years. YEARS! Are you kidding? I'll need my money before that. Very simply this is telling you that the stock market is very over-valued. Either corporate productivity must increase dramatically or stock prices must come down. Right now it looks like the latter is happening. So far about $6 trillion (that's with a 'T') has vanished from stockholders portfolios these last 2 years. Nobody else got it. It's just gone. It was all paper profit anyway.

Your broker tells you you don't have a loss until you sell and not to worry as the market always comes back - except when it doesn't. Since 1920 there have 3 major bull markets that have lasted about 16 years. The last one started about 1982 and ended at 2000. Each one of the bulls has been followed by a sideways to down market for the next 16 years. I am no soothsayer, but this has all the makings of one of those 16-year periods. What to do?

There is only one thing that is prudent until the carnage stops. Sell out of all stocks and stock mutual funds except no-load bond funds. (It is not too late to sell.) There are many good ones such as Government, International and Mortgage Backed no-load bond funds with varying lengths of maturity. It may not be exciting like the 1998-99 run up, but you will have your money when the dust settles.

This market is different. It's a bear.

Al Thomas' best selling book, "If It Doesn't Go Up, Don't Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter to receive his market letter for 3 months at www.mutualfundmagic.com to discover why he's the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Comments to al@mutualfundmagic.com

recurring maid service Wilmette ..

In The News:

Google's discontinued Nest thermostats still secretly upload home data to company servers despite losing smart features, raising serious privacy concerns.

New Android malware NGate steals NFC payment codes in real-time, allowing criminals to withdraw cash from ATMs without your card. Learn protection tips.

DoorDash confirms data breach exposing customer names, emails, addresses after social engineering attack. Learn how to protect yourself from scams.

Concerned about Google's AI scanning your Gmail? Learn how to disable Gemini features that access your emails, Drive files and Chat messages for privacy.

Google warns Android users about dangerous fake VPN apps hiding malware that steals passwords, banking details and personal data from phones and tablets.

Apple's digital passport feature lets iPhone users breeze through TSA checkpoints this holiday season using Digital ID technology at 250+ airports.

A new phishing scam targets family photos with fake "Cloud Storage Full" alerts. Criminals steal credit card information through fake sites. Learn protection tips.

South Korean scientists create ultra-thin fabric muscles that turn clothes into robotic assistants, lifting 33 pounds while weighing under half an ounce.

Archer Aviation has acquired Hawthorne Airport for $126M to launch an LA air taxi network ahead of the 2028 Olympics, featuring AI-powered eVTOL operations and next-gen aviation tech.

Stay up to date on the latest AI technology advancements and learn about the challenges and opportunities AI presents now and for the future.

Fake AI apps disguised as "ChatGPT" and "DALL·E" are flooding app stores with dangerous malware that steals data and monitors users without detection.

Fake buyers demand specific vehicle reports from unknown sites to steal credit card information from car sellers, but warning signs can help identify these scams before paying.

Android users can now manage apps across multiple devices more easily with Google Play Store's updated remote uninstall button in the latest update.

NASA's Perseverance rover discovers shiny metallic rock on Mars that could be a meteorite from an ancient asteroid, containing high levels of iron and nickel.

Holiday scams spike during Black Friday and Cyber Monday as criminals exploit your leaked personal data. Learn how to protect yourself from fake stores and phishing.

Commerce Department proposes TP-Link router ban over Chinese security risks. Learn how this potential prohibition could affect your home network and devices.

Hyundai AutoEver America suffered a data breach affecting 2,000 current and former employees, exposing names, Social Security numbers and driver's license information.

Washington court rules automated license plate reader images are public records, even when stored by vendors like Flock Safety, setting precedent for transparency.

Fake airline texts claiming flight cancellations are targeting travelers with convincing scams. Learn how cybercriminals steal personal data and credit card info.

Discover how iOS 26's new Adaptive Power feature automatically extends iPhone battery life by learning your usage patterns and adjusting performance intelligently.

New TikTok malware campaign tricks users into running PowerShell commands that download Aura Stealer, which steals credentials and authentication tokens.

Gaia Family offers fixed upfront pricing for IVF cycles with unlimited embryo transfers and financial protection, partnering with over 100 U.S. fertility clinics.

The Jetsons Act aims to position Pennsylvania as a leader in advanced air mobility by establishing regulations for hybrid ground-air vehicles.

Fake Geek Squad invoice emails are targeting users with convincing charges and urgent phone numbers to steal personal information and money.

Fox News Digital's artificial intelligence newsletter digs into a robot in Russia that faceplanted, George Clooney's alarm and OpenAI's rivalry with the New York Times.

This Market Is Different

Stocks & Mutual Fund