Valuation

Every day I hear from the "experts" on CNBC-TV and the radio gurus that the way to buy stocks is find value. One man's Rembrandt is another man's connect-the-dots and fill in the spaces. Valuation is like beauty. It is in the mind of the beholder.

If valuation is the key to buying stocks then there should be some kind of a formula to determine what is undervalued and over-valued. In every industry there are formulas for standards of performance. For cars we want to know the zero to 60 miles per hour in how many seconds. For soap we want it to be 99 and 44/100 percent pure. For alcoholic beverages it could be how long it has been aged. And on and on.

Yet in the stock market we have no hard and fast set of rules by which to judge a company performance. Ah, and there's the rub! No matter how good a company performance might be it may have no bearing on the price performance of the stock. You can find good companies that are within a sector that is doing poorly and yet one company can be making huge profits and sales, but the stock price is going nowhere. There need not be any correlation.

When you are in a bull market almost every stock goes up ? even the dogs. When you are in a bear market almost every stock goes down ? even the best ones. We ended an 18 year bull market in 2000 and almost without exception every stock headed for the exit.

Bull and bear markets follow relatively standard patterns of about 16 to 18 years up and 16 to 18 years down and the valuations go right along with them. If you own stocks or especially index funds during the bear periods you will be lucky to have broken even at the end of the 16-year cycle. Cash in your mattress will outperform market returns while the bear is in charge.

During these bear times there will be periods when the market will have a nice advance such as the one we saw start in 2003. These intermediate rises can ultimately bring many investors back into the market only to lose it when the rally is over and true valuation returns.

One valuation measurement for the overall market is the Price/Earnings ratio of the S&P500 Index. The median number for the historic purposes has been around 14. Today it is running about 21 which is considered high. When bear markets end the P/E can be about 6 or 8. There are other factors to be considered when buying any stock or fund, but the one thing that is most important is to have an exit strategy. Without one you will give back your profits.

No one knows exactly where the top or bottom of a market move will be. Knowing conventional valuations is one tool to help your buying and selling decisions.

Al Thomas' book, "If It Doesn't Go Up, Don't Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he's the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Wood Dale Chicago prom limo .. Lockport Chicago limo O’Hare

In The News:

Stay up to date on the latest AI technology advancements and learn about the challenges and opportunities AI presents

Internet browsers are useful, but they can be dangerous. Clicking on malicious links can direct you to dangerous websites that steal information or infect your device.

Apple's latest iOS update introduces advanced artificial intelligence capabilities, which may be capturing and analyzing sensitive information.

Breach site confirmed 56,904,909 Hot Topic users' data leaked online. Tech expert Kurt “CyberGuy" Knutsson says the company's silence makes matters even worse.

Tech expert Kurt “CyberGuy" Knutsson discusses how an innovative Easy-Way kit turns standard strollers electric, simplifying navigation for parents.

Tech expert Kurt “CyberGuy" Knutsson talks about T-Mobile being hacked in broad cyberattack on global phone and internet companies.

Tech expert Kurt “CyberGuy" Knutsson shows you how to add, customize and manage widgets for quick access to apps and info from your iPhone home screen.

Wrong Google searches can not only compromise your device and personal data. They can also bring law enforcement to your doorstep. Hackers are targeting Google searches.

China's Shanghai Kepler Robotics has developed a new humanoid robot that can carry up to 35 pounds per hand for commercial applications across various industries

Checking your hearing has gotten easier with the new hearing test feature in AirPods Pro 2. You can take reliable hearing tests using your iPhone or iPad.

Stay up to date on the latest AI technology advancements and learn about the challenges and opportunities AI presents now and for the future.

Kurt "CyberGuy" Knutsson explains how a VPN — virtual private network — works and how running it can slow down the operation of your device.

The WalkON Suit F1, an exoskeleton developed to help people with disabilities, can actually walk over to a person in a wheelchair, solving a major problem.

ClickFix, a new scam targeting computer users, is on the rise in the U.S. The scam prompts its targets to click on a link to fix a problem.

Skydweller is the world's largest unmanned solar-powered aircraft that can stay airborne for weeks, and even months, without refueling.

The U.S. government said it is investigating after People's Republic of China hackers targeted commercial telecommunications service providers in the U.S.

Stay up to date on the latest AI technology advancements and learn about the challenges and opportunities AI presents now and for the future.

Scammers are using increasingly sophisticated ways to lure unsuspecting victims, and some are impersonating an email help desk or support team.

You can unsend or edit your iMessages with the latest iOS updates. Kurt the CyberGuy explains how you can save yourself some potential embarrassment.

Kurt “CyberGuy" Knutsson says there’s been a rise in cybercriminal services using hacked police and government emails to send subpoenas and data requests to U.S. companies.

Kurt “CyberGuy" Knutsson discusses how Axiom Space and luxury designer Prada are collaborating on NASA's Artemis III spacesuit design.

Voice assistants may cause confusion across devices. Tech expert Kurt “CyberGuy" Knutsson offers some solutions to fix it.

Shameless scammers trick veterans into giving personal info or cash. Tech expert Kurt “CyberGuy" Knutsson explores five common scams.

Tech expert Kurt “CyberGuy" Knutsson helps you honor our heroes with these powerful podcasts, audiobooks and documentaries this Veterans Day.

Valuation

Stocks & Mutual Fund