A Rough Cut on Feasibility

A piano tuner recently moved to Buffalo, NY, and would like to assess the business possibilities for him in his new home. He plans to estimate how many piano tuners the greater Buffalo area can support, and compare that to the number listed in the phone book. How do we advise him as to how to estimate the "right" number of tuners for the area?

One approach is simply to guess. Would it be 1, 10, 50, or 100? Are you comfortable with this approach? I am not. An approach I would be comfortable with would be to search for data on estimates of how many piano tuners per capita there are in the U.S., and apply that ratio to the Buffalo area population (let's use 1.3 million). Is data on this likely to be available? Test your resourcefulness by trying to find it.

Assuming that data is not available, we must go to the "some assembly required" approach to estimating, that is, deriving the estimate from data which is available modified by related local and national data, norms, and "rules of thumb." While this seems so indirect as to be little better than just guessing, it can be a very useful exercise. If nothing else, it causes us to identify some important variables and how they relate to our business of interest. The inaccuracies of compounding estimates can be minimized by working in ranges to give us a "ballpark" figure.

How can I derive a meaningful estimate from generally available information? It would be interesting to know what percentage of American households own a piano, and how often they get it tuned. If the data is national, we may need to apply some local adjustment factor. Given the annual number of piano tunings, we can divide by the annual capacity of a tuner to determine how many are needed.

I will do an "off-the-top-of-my-head" calculation to illustrate the method, then leave it to you to provide real values:

Buffalo has about 400,000 households population divided by 3 members average); 8% of American households own pianos. I can think of no reason to apply any local adjustment to this figure, so we are talking about roughly 32,000 pianos. My guess is that two-thirds of all pianos are merely furniture, so that the remainder of about 11,000 are played regularly and in need of tuning. Tuners recommend that a piano be serviced twice a year, but my guess is that the average is probably once a year for active pianos, or 11,000 tunings per year.

A tuner can service 2 to 4 pianos a day; let us say 3 per day, 5 days a week, 50 weeks a year, or 750 tunings per year per tuner. To provide Buffalo's 11,000 annual tunings would require almost 15 tuners. The phone book lists 9. Sounds promising!

How do you like this? How many would you have guessed without this analysis? Does the result seem reasonable? Enough on which to base the opening of a business?

Could it have been done more scientifically? How? Would discussions with piano tuners and music stores have been useful? Are there any journals worth consulting? Would a survey have helped?

Are pianos in places other than homes? Are there tuners not listed in the yellow pages?

The Census of Retail Trade provides the average number of stores per capita for a variety of retail outlets. Based on their data, we can determine how well our proposed market area is served on a relative basis for the type of business we plan to start. For example, there is, on average, a stationery store for every 33,000 people; for every 26,000 people there is one bookstore and one nursery and garden supply store. The population can presumably support a barber shop for every 2,200 residents, and a furniture store for every 3,000.

john b. vinturella, ph.d. has almost 40 years experience as a management and strategic consultant, entrepreneur, author, and college professor. For 20 of those years, Dr. Vinturella was owner/president of a distribution company that he founded. He is a principal in business opportunity sites john b. vinturella, ph.d. and john b. vinturella, ph.d., and maintains business and political blogs.

top rated cleaning service Lake Forest ..

In The News:

Android users can now manage apps across multiple devices more easily with Google Play Store's updated remote uninstall button in the latest update.

NASA's Perseverance rover discovers shiny metallic rock on Mars that could be a meteorite from an ancient asteroid, containing high levels of iron and nickel.

Holiday scams spike during Black Friday and Cyber Monday as criminals exploit your leaked personal data. Learn how to protect yourself from fake stores and phishing.

Commerce Department proposes TP-Link router ban over Chinese security risks. Learn how this potential prohibition could affect your home network and devices.

Hyundai AutoEver America suffered a data breach affecting 2,000 current and former employees, exposing names, Social Security numbers and driver's license information.

Washington court rules automated license plate reader images are public records, even when stored by vendors like Flock Safety, setting precedent for transparency.

Fake airline texts claiming flight cancellations are targeting travelers with convincing scams. Learn how cybercriminals steal personal data and credit card info.

Discover how iOS 26's new Adaptive Power feature automatically extends iPhone battery life by learning your usage patterns and adjusting performance intelligently.

New TikTok malware campaign tricks users into running PowerShell commands that download Aura Stealer, which steals credentials and authentication tokens.

Gaia Family offers fixed upfront pricing for IVF cycles with unlimited embryo transfers and financial protection, partnering with over 100 U.S. fertility clinics.

The Jetsons Act aims to position Pennsylvania as a leader in advanced air mobility by establishing regulations for hybrid ground-air vehicles.

Fake Geek Squad invoice emails are targeting users with convincing charges and urgent phone numbers to steal personal information and money.

Fox News Digital's artificial intelligence newsletter digs into a robot in Russia that faceplanted, George Clooney's alarm and OpenAI's rivalry with the New York Times.

Major data breach at Conduent exposes personal information of 10+ million people. Government contractor hit by cyberattack affecting Medicaid, child support systems.

Texas startup Janta Power raises $5.5M for innovative vertical solar towers that generate 50% more energy than traditional panels while using just one-third the land.

NASA's twin ESCAPADE spacecraft launched aboard Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket Thursday afternoon from Cape Canaveral, beginning their journey to Mars with arrival expected in 2027.

Learn how to set email reminders on iPhone and Android so you never forget to reply again. Simple built-in features help you stay organized and on top of messages.

Discover how Apple's passkeys revolutionize Mac security by replacing vulnerable passwords with biometric authentication and encryption for ultimate protection.

New survey reveals 78% of parents fear AI scams targeting their kids, yet nearly half haven't discussed these threats. Learn why this dangerous gap exists.

Chrome now autofills passport and driver's license info automatically. Google's latest browser update adds official document support with encryption and user control.

Scammers impersonate Department of Veterans Affairs employees claiming veterans owe money, but real VA communications only direct to VA.gov or official channels.

The AltoVolo Sigma hybrid-electric aircraft flies 500 miles at 220 mph while operating 80% quieter than helicopters, featuring safety systems and compact design.

Google search scam alert: fake customer service numbers can give scammers remote control of your phone. Learn how to spot these traps and protect yourself.

Electric vehicles overtake gas cars in total CO2 savings after just two years of driving, with emissions benefits growing over time as power grids get cleaner.

Louvre Museum reportedly used "Louvre" as password for surveillance system during $100M jewel heist. Learn how weak passwords put even famous institutions at risk.

A Rough Cut on Feasibility

Strategic Planning